Fundamental Analysis

GBPUSD – A Bear Lure?


This pair has been down considerably for 2 days to a brand new two-month low at 1.2848, though the UK financial information was comparatively optimistic on each days. On Wednesday (February 19) it was retail costs, PPI and CPI, all of which got here out nicely, and strengthened the GBP for a short while. Nevertheless, shortly after the important thing information announcement the pair continued to plummet closely into and in the course of the US market. Wednesday closed down round 78 pips and Thursday (February 20) was the identical, because the UK Retail Gross sales numbers got here out optimistic. However the pair nonetheless closed down greater than 35 pips because the Greenback remained dominant.

US financial information additionally got here out nicely on each days, and the US Greenback Index managed to succeed in an nearly three 12 months excessive at 99.79, whereas Brexit commerce negotiations between the UK and the EU started to show round once more. Within the case that the UK might have to go away the EU and not using a deal after the French Finance Minister has come out to remark that “we’re separated”.

From a technical perspective, the breakout of the assist zone yesterday (February 20) at 1.2880 brought on the H4 timeframe to print indicators of a bear lure, which should proceed to develop to see if the pair can go up or not. Within the Day timeframe, yesterday the value got here down to check the important thing assist on the EMA 200 line and bounce again up. This makes at present’s first assist stage 1.2880. If the value goes down and is ready to go this stage, the following assist stage will likely be at yesterday’s low at round 1.2850, but when the value continues to rise there may be  resistance ready at 1.2925 and 1.2950.

Nevertheless, at present on the financial calendar there may be nonetheless vital financial information ready. At 16:30, the UK declares PMI numbers for each manufacturing and companies. At 21.45 hrs onwards, the US will announce PMI and month-to-month house gross sales figures for January.

Click on right here  to see the financial calendar. 

Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Academic Workplace – Thailand

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