Fundamental Analysis

Tumble continues

The Yen has continued to tumble, and is displaying a close to 2% decline in opposition to the Greenback from yesterday’s opening ranges.USDJPY printed a 10-month excessive at 112.10, simply 28 pips away from 10-month excessive, and EURJPY posted a 2-week excessive, at 121.00.

There have been stories during the last day of main fund managers chopping yen longs, together with in opposition to brief regional Asian forex hedge positions, although most Asian currencies got here underneath pretty heavy stress right this moment amid considerations concerning the coronavirus outbreak spreading regionally at an elevated fee. There has additionally been speak of Japanese funds shopping for US Treasuries. Whereas China reported a big drop in new circumstances, simply because the PBoC delivered an anticipated fee minimize, South Korea and Japan report will increase in new circumstances.

This information led to a blended efficiency amongst Asian fairness markets, with China outperforming whereas different benchmark indices sputtered. Attempting to name the purpose of peak contagion, and thereby the height of financial disruption, is hard, although the consensus appears to be that it’s going to occur in March or April, aided by the arrival of hotter climate within the northern hemisphere (though scientists aren’t precisely certain if heat climate may have the identical quelling impact because it does on flu and chilly viruses).

Japan’s This autumn GDP knowledge, launched on Monday, dissatisfied, displaying a 1.6% q/q contraction versus the median forecast for -Zero.9%. Q3 knowledge have been additionally revised down, and the figures got here amid expectations for a dismal present quarter efficiency given the affect of measures to comprise the virus outbreak.

There’s a threat that USDJPY would possibly sharply reverse good points ought to threat urge for food in international markets deteriorate and maintain. Intraday in the meantime, momentum indicators proceed constructive configuration, suggesting that even if the asset reached overbought territory there may be nonetheless room to the upside. Stochastics slopes into overbought space, MACD extends above sign line suggesting strengthening of constructive bias while ATR posts 16 pips transfer. Some correction might me seen forward of US session, with quick Help at 112.00 and 111.58 (yesterday’s peak), nevertheless the general outlook stays constructive. Resistance sits at 2019 peak , i.e. 112.38 and at 112.66 (R2 of the day).


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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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