Gold Value Outlook: XAU/USD Rally Fails at Resistance– Bulls at Danger

Gold costs surged almost 6% because the begin of the yr with XAU/USD now testing vital multi-year technical resistance. Whereas the broader outlook stays weighted to the topside, the advance could also be weak near-term whereas beneath this vital threshold. These are the up to date targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the XAU/USD charts. Overview my newest Weekly Technique Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold worth setup and extra.

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Gold Value Chart – XAU/USD Each day

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Ready by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my newest Gold Weekly Value Outlook we famous that the XAU/USD, “worth breakout is now approaching targets into uptrend resistance – look to cut back long-exposure / elevate protecting stops on a rally into the higher parallels.” Value registered a excessive at 1611 right now earlier than reversing sharply and the danger stays for a deeper pullback whereas beneath pitchfork resistance / the 61.eight% retracement of the decline off the document highs in gold at 1586– a breach / day by day shut above this threshold is required to mark resumption of the broader uptrend focusing on 1625. Preliminary day by day assist now rests a 1522/58 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the target month-to-month open / December 2011 low at 1520.

Gold Value Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Notes: A more in-depth have a look at gold worth motion highlights right now’s failed try and breach resistance with XAU/USD pulling again beneath the 1586 resistance zone on constructing momentum divergence. Whereas it’s too early to depend on this downslope, we’ll use it as a reference for now with a break sub-1547 wanted to validate a bigger near-term correction in worth focusing on the median-line, presently almost 1530s and 1522– each ranges of curiosity for doable exhaustion.A break / shut beneath the 61.eight% retracement at 1508 would be wanted to put the bears again in management– search for a much bigger response there IF reached on a spike.

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Backside line: The gold rally has stretched into resistance at uptrend extremes and leaves the rally weak whereas beneath 1586 – threat for exhaustion right here. From a buying and selling standpoint, a great spot to cut back long-exposure / elevate protecting stops. Search for topside exhaustion whereas beneath the weekly highs – finally a bigger correction might provide extra favorable long-entries nearer to uptrend assist.

For a whole breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, evaluate his Foundations of Technical Evaluation collection on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Dealer Sentiment – XAU/USD Value Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical ForecastA abstract of IG Consumer Sentiment exhibits merchants are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.03 (66.99% of merchants are lengthy) – bearishstudyingLengthy positions are9.13% larger than yesterday and 12.82% larger from final weekBrief positions are 5.67% decrease than yesterday and 5.23% larger from final weekWe sometimes take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-long suggests Gold costs might proceed to fall. Merchants are additional net-long than yesterday & final week, and the mix of present positioning and up to date adjustments offers us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian buying and selling bias from a sentiment standpoint.


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– Written by Michael Boutros, Forex Strategist with DailyFX

Observe Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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