COT Report – Evaluation and Speaking Factors
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Supply: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers as much as December 31st, launched January 6th)
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US Greenback Longs Slashed, GBP/USD Most Bullish Since Could 2018 – COT Report
Within the ultimate week of 2019, buyers had but once more in the reduction of on their bullish bets within the US Greenback by over $2bln, ensuing within the smallest lengthy place within the dollar since September at $15.6bln towards G10 currencies.
Protected-haven currencies had been in favour as each the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc noticed their internet shorts slashed by $921mln and $495mln respectively. That mentioned, with geopolitical tensions rising between the US and Iran, this will see upside in USD/JPY considerably restricted above 109.00.
Speculators are essentially the most bullish within the Pound since Could 2018 as internet longs rose by $323mln, taking whole bullish bets to $1bln. Nonetheless, the rise in internet longs had stemmed from the continued brief squeeze, provided that gross longs noticed a modest dip. Elsewhere, sentiment within the Euro stays weak with bearish bets within the forex persevering with to develop, consequently, the Euro has repeatedly did not consolidate above 1.1200, which in flip makes pullbacks on rallies to 1.1240 seem enticing.
Throughout the commodity linked currencies, the Australian Greenback noticed a sizeable discount in internet shorts (lower by $500mln) as buyers took up recent longs. Though, whereas we’re comparatively downbeat on the Aussie towards the US Greenback, we favour shopping for AUD/NZD, given the overbought nature within the NZD, whereas we additionally anticipate the RBA to face pat on coverage in February, which is towards market pricing for a 25bps lower. The Canadian Greenback internet longs had been boosted, supporting the case for the 1.3000 deal with cap upside in USD/CAD.
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— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
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