AUD Evaluation and Speaking Factors
AUD/USD | Dovish RBA Governor Would Put 2019 Low at DangerAUD/NZD | Bullish Momentum Fading as Key Resistance Holds
AUD/USD | Dovish RBA Governor Would Put 2019 Low at Danger
The downtrend stays intact for AUD/USD because it hovers round final weeks low of zero.6760. Alongside this, DMIs on the every day, weekly and month-to-month timeframe proceed to tilt to the draw back, consequently, this will increase the danger that the pair may make a transfer in direction of the zero.6700 assist zone. The near-term driver for the Australian Greenback will likely be feedback from RBA Governor Lowe through which a affirmation charge minimize could also be wanted on the October assembly would put strain on the pair with dangers of the 2019 low (zero.6677) being examined. That stated, given charge minimize is basically priced in at 74%, a extra wait-and-see stance from the Governor would doubtless see a pointy kneejerk transfer larger with break above zero.6800 earlier than a check of zero.6830.
AUD/USD Value Chart: Every day Time Body (Oct 201eight – Sep 2019)
AUD/NZD | Bullish Momentum Fading as Key Resistance Holds
The latest bullish momentum within the cross seems to have stalled following the pullback from the 61.eight% Fibonacci retracement degree (1.0832), whereas the upside bias within the every day DMI has additionally eased. Consequently, eyes are on near-term assist at 1.0725 (50% Fibonacci retracement). As a reminder, alongside RBA Governor Lowe, focus may even be on the RBNZ through which they’ll announce their newest charge resolution. Because it stands, markets are presently 22% priced in for a 25bps minimize on the September assembly and 80% priced in for a November charge minimize. Nevertheless, commentary from RBNZ Governor Orr ultimately months Jackson Gap Symposium hinted that they have been prepared to wait-and-see following their shock 50bps minimize in August. The stance has additionally been reiterated from the RBNZ’s shadow board who had largely agreed that one other charge minimize is just not required at this current stage. With this in thoughts, a mix of a dovish RBA and a impartial RBNZ may see a fabric transfer decrease within the cross, breaking beneath 1.0700 and eye a check of 1.0620. Of observe, bearish positioning in NZD is at excessive ranges, which in flip raises the danger of a pointy rally within the foreign money.
AUD/NZD Value Chart: Every day Time Body (Jun 18 – Sep 19)
— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
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