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FX Week Forward – High 5 Occasions: September RBA Assembly & AUD/USD Fee Forecast

RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) RATE REVIEW & AUDUSD PRICE OUTLOOK:

The September RBA assembly is on deck for subsequent week and is actually a high occasion to maintain on the buying and selling radar. Excessive-impact occasion danger surrounding the Reserve Financial institution of Australia’s newest rate of interest choice due for launch this coming Tuesday at four:30 GMT stands to ship spot AUDUSD worth motion swinging regardless of the central financial institution broadly anticipated to remain on maintain.

Though, the RBA’s most up-to-date financial coverage assertion famous that “it’s cheap to count on that an prolonged interval of low rates of interest might be required” which may foreshadow additional dovish motion within the close to future.

SEPTEMBER RBA MEETING INTEREST RATE CHANGE PROBABILITIES

RBA Rate Cut Probability Chart Reserve Bank of Australia September 2019

Aussie outlook stays bleak and dangers to the worldwide economic system stay tilted to the draw back in gentle of ongoing US-China commerce struggle uncertainty. Nonetheless, there’s a 12.2% likelihood that the Reserve Financial institution of Australia cuts its coverage rate of interest subsequent week in accordance with the newest in a single day swaps pricing.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITY & TRADING RANGES

Australian Dollar Implied Volatility and Trading Ranges AUDUSD AUDJPY EURAUD AUDCAD GBPAUD

That mentioned, the Australian Greenback stays in danger contemplating that RBA Governor Lowe may trace at one other rate of interest reduce is coming down the highway. Aussie danger can be highlighted by the rise in Australian Greenback implied volatility with the 1-week measures for the key AUD-crosses resting comfortably above their 12-month averages.

AUDUSD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (APRIL 08, 2019 TO AUGUST 30, 2019)

AUDUSD Price Chart Technical Analysis Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting September 2019

We just lately highlighted how Australian Greenback worth motion stays sluggish commerce struggle tensions simmering. One doable rationalization might be as a result of looming September RBA assembly as foreign exchange merchants await elementary readability. Consequently, Australian Greenback outlook might be largely dictated by the market’s response to the September RBA assembly.

— Written by Wealthy Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Join with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market perception

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