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Dow Jones Outlook: Index Awaits US GDP on Shaky Floor

Dow Jones Outlook Speaking Factors:

Dow Jones Outlook: Index Awaits US GDP on Shaky Floor

The Dow Jones will look to Thursday’s launch of the finalized GDP information from the US. Whereas the preliminary fourth quarter determine – which frequently has a bigger market response – was launched a month in the past, the ultimate yearly information print remains to be topic to revisions and will ship a shock to the Industrial Common given the panorama. The present standing of the Dow Jones and different US indices seems weak and a disappointing conclusion to final yr’s information may make the most of that vulnerability.

US Gross Home Product Quarter over Quarter (Chart 1)

US GDP

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In accordance with the put-call ratio of the S&P 500, some merchants have braced for bearish worth motion – presumably envisioning a damaging information print or a continuation of the current risk-off perspective as a result of different components. The ratio of places to calls on the index climbed to zero.98 in Wednesday buying and selling, the very best since January 10 when the S&P 500 traded under 2,600 and the ratio was 1.

S&P 500 Worth and Put-Name Ratio (Chart 2)

S&P 500 put call ratio

That mentioned, some sectors could also be extra weak than others. Manufacturing is without doubt one of the extra delicate industries to financial manufacturing because the outlook for development may help or harm firms that depend on steady enlargement.

Dow Jones Worth Chart: Every day Time Body (January 2018 – March 2019) (Chart three)

Dow Jones price chart and xli etf price chart

Dow Jones worth chart overlaid with ratio of S&P 500 to XLI ETF in crimson

The economic-tracking XLI ETF has lately lagged the broader S&P 500 possible as a result of appreciable concern over slowing international development and partially due to Boeing’s current struggles. A poor GDP print would show troublesome for the trade and certain contribute to additional underperformance within the sector.

Dow Jones Worth Chart: four – Hour Time Body (October 2018 – March 2019) (Chart four)

dow jones price chart

At the moment, the index finds itself buying and selling indecisively in a narrowing wedge, with alternatives for a continuation larger – regardless of the obvious basic headwinds.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and observe Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Learn extra: S&P 500 Outlook: Darkish Clouds Forming Over US Markets

DailyFX forecasts on quite a lot of currencies such because the US Greenback or the Euro can be found from the DailyFX Buying and selling Guides web page. When you’re seeking to enhance your buying and selling method, take a look at Traits of Profitable Merchants. And if you happen to’re on the lookout for an introductory primer to Forex, take a look at our New to FX Information.


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