Fundamental Analysis

Replace on Canadian crosses


USDCAD is in consolidation mode close to 1.3300 after rallying sharply after disappointing Canadian GDP knowledge, which despatched the pair to an preliminary peak at 1.3241, up from 1.3130. The pair later topped at 1.3306, a 2-week excessive, extending early beneficial properties. The second leg increased got here as WTI crude tanked almost $2/bbl to $55.58 lows. The 50-day transferring common at 1.3302 was breached, which additionally coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ranges as proven under. Even when the asset strikes northwards, this barrier stays a resistance for the asset. Solely a detailed above it right this moment may verify an additional upside transfer for the asset.

The day by day technical indicators are impartial, as RSI and MACD have been flattening at 55 and near impartial zone respectively, suggesting the continuation of the consolidation mode. That is against Stochastic which is sloping increased, suggesting additional upside not less than within the close to future. If we take a more in-depth have a look at the intraday indicators, the image is blended once more, with RSI and Stochastic flat whereas MACD has fashioned a bullish cross. Therefore additional northwards motion could possibly be seen  if the asset kinds a powerful break above Friday’s peak, within the Four-hour time-frame. This state of affairs may result in the retest of the following important Resistance space at 1.33601.3375 (R1, 50% Fib. stage and January 24 peak). Instant Assist for the day holds at 1.3270.

The outlook may flip unfavourable provided that the pair retraces greater than 50% of the beneficial properties seen on Friday, i.e. if it turns decrease, under the 1.3218-1.3224 space.

EURCAD, alternatively, broke the 2-month down-channel on Friday, strengthening the up reversal state of affairs for the asset. At present it stays above the 50-day EMA and under the 200-day EMA. In the meantime, technical indicators have been improved barely, as unfavourable bias appears to shedding floor the final Four weeks. Intraday nevertheless the asset is popping decrease, however this might simply be a correction of Friday’s sharp soar. Assist holds at 1.5035-1.5050 space (February 19 – confluence of 23.6% Fib. stage and PP stage). If the asset sustains beneficial properties above this space, then additional beneficial properties could possibly be seen, with subsequent Resistance ranges set at: 1.5130, 1.5160 and 1.5180.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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