Fundamental Analysis

FX Setups for the Week of February 18, 2019

FX Setups for the Week of February 18, 2019

– DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts can be found straight from the next hyperlink: DailyFX Buying and selling Guides, Q1 Forecasts.

– For buying and selling concepts, please take a look at our Buying and selling Guides. And for those who’re on the lookout for one thing extra interactive in nature, please take a look at our DailyFX Dwell webinars.

– In case you’d like extra colour round any of the setups under, take part our reside DailyFX webinars every week, set for Tuesday and Thursday at 1PM Japanese Time. You’ll be able to join every of these classes from the under hyperlink:

Tuesday: Tuesday, 1PM ET

Thursday: Thursday 1PM ET

Do you need to see how retail merchants are presently buying and selling the US Greenback? Take a look at our IG Consumer Sentiment Indicator.

Subsequent week brings a US market vacation on Monday, and after that markets will face a comparatively quiet financial calendar with solely a handful of high-impact occasions. This shall be prime alternative for US Greenback bulls to point out their arms, because the post-FOMC run within the foreign money has pushed costs greater all through the month of February. Under, I take a look at a collection of setups on both facet of the US Greenback with the intention of devising technique for the week forward.

Bearish GBP/USD Biases on Maintain Under 1.2960

The elemental backdrop across the British Pound stays very unclear on quite a lot of points, key of which is a really unsure backdrop round Brexit. And whereas volatility has grow to be a bit extra commonplace within the British Pound, merchants will doubtless need to proceed to deal with shorter-term approaches, on the lookout for swing trades off of assist or resistance ranges with the intention of limiting the period of time uncovered to swings and turns in GBP.

This week marked a continuation of GBP/USD’s reversal of January power. After the foreign money perched above the 1.3200 stage three weeks in the past, sellers have re-grasped management; and this week was marked by a continuation of lower-lows and lower-highs within the pair. Alongside the way in which, a giant assist zone that runs from 1.2828-1.2850 was taken-out after a fast bounce set a weekly swing excessive at 1.2959. This will maintain deal with a deeper assist zone that runs from 1.2671-1.2735. On the resistance facet of the coin, the 1.2920 stage stays of curiosity, as that is the 38.2% retracement of the January transfer, and this can be a stage that supplied a little bit of assist when costs within the pair had been on their method down, as checked out final week.

GBPUSD 4-Hour Value Chart

gbpusd gbp/usd four hour price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

Bearish USDCHF: Reversal Potential on Maintain Under 1.0100

It’s been an irregular week in USDCHF that began off in a peculiar method. Shortly after the open of this week’s commerce, a ‘mini flash crash’ confirmed within the Franc, and that propelled costs in USDCHF as much as the 1.0096 resistance stage, albeit briefly. After costs pushed again to parity, the remainder of the week noticed patrons push costs again as much as 1.0096, with sellers frequently furnishing provide to carry resistance at this stage.

USDCHF Two-Hour Value Chart

usdchf usd/chf two hour price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

At this stage, a continued maintain of resistance on this space can maintain the door open for reversal methods within the pair. I had checked out this market within the Thursday webinar, and that theme stays as resistance has continued to carry on this space. Merchants on the lookout for short-side USD methods or for these taking part in a reversal of the bullish transfer in USDCHF, a return to parity may stay as a focused goal, after which break-even stops may very well be utilized to search for a deeper reversal transfer.

USDCHF Weekly Value Chart

usdchf usd/chf weekly price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

Bullish EURUSD on Maintain Above 1.1215

That is considerably associated to the above theme in USDCHF, as EURUSD stays very close to a longer-term assist zone that’s, at the least so far, proving tough to interrupt. This assist zone first got here again into play in November of final 12 months; and it’s held a number of checks within the 4 months since.

EURUSD Eight-Hour Value Chart

eurusd eur/usd eight hour price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

On a near-term foundation, promoting has began to gradual as the underside of that zone has come nearer, and this has led right into a shorter-term falling wedge sample. This may usually be approached with the intention of on the lookout for bullish reversals, because the proof of sellers slowing on the lows could prelude and eventual shift so as movement. This will maintain the door open for the longer-term vary sample within the pair to fill-in, with stops investigated under assist and preliminary targets set to the mid-point of the current vary or greater.

EURUSD Hourly Value Chart

eurusd eur/usd hourly price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

Bullish USDJPY on Maintain Above 109.67

This week noticed USDJPY breakout from a giant zone of resistance that runs from 109.67-110.00. That resistance zone first got here again into play simply a few weeks into the New 12 months, exhibiting a stark distinction to the promoting within the pair that populated the primary few days of USDJPY commerce in 2019. However, after virtually a month of resistance checks in that space, patrons pushed as much as contemporary highs shortly after this week’s open, and that theme has remained distinguished ever since.

This morning noticed a fast pullback to a short-term assist stage at 110.30, and that has held so far. However the pair may have an even bigger pullback earlier than the longer-term bullish development is able to proceed, and a assist take a look at at that prior zone of well-defined resistance can open the door for such a theme.

USDJPY 4-Hour Value Chart

usdjpy usd/jpy four hour price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

To learn extra:

Are you on the lookout for longer-term evaluation on the U.S. Greenback? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a piece for every main foreign money, and we additionally supply a plethora of sources on USD-pairs similar to EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Merchants also can keep up with near-term positioning by way of our IG Consumer Sentiment Indicator.

Foreign exchange Buying and selling Assets

DailyFX gives a plethora of instruments, indicators and sources to assist merchants. For these on the lookout for buying and selling concepts, our IG Consumer Sentiment reveals the positioning of retail merchants with precise reside trades and positions. Our buying and selling guides deliver our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Prime Buying and selling Alternatives; and our real-time information feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX crew. And for those who’re on the lookout for real-time evaluation, our DailyFX Webinars supply quite a few classes every week in which you’ll see how and why we’re what we’re .

In case you’re on the lookout for instructional data, our New to FX information is there to assist new(er) merchants whereas our Traits of Profitable Merchants analysis is constructed to assist sharpen the ability set by specializing in threat and commerce administration.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for

Contact and comply with James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

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