Technical Analysis

EUR/USD sellers stay in management however lack conviction for an extra draw back break

The pair nonetheless holds beneath 1.1300 however is struggling to interrupt beneath 1.1250

EUR/USD H1 15-02

Even supposing the greenback struggled yesterday after the poor retail gross sales report, EUR/USD patrons had been unable to regain some notable near-term momentum as upside motion was capped by the 100-hour MA (purple line) in addition to the 1.1300 deal with.

That continues to point that sellers are nonetheless in management however in the meanwhile, they’re missing a spark/catalyst to interrupt additional to the draw back. Evidently, struggling/sluggish financial information from the tip of final yr is not sufficient anymore as merchants are nicely conscious of situations within the area on the time.

The important thing now will probably be to see the extent through which the financial slowdown is carrying over to the brand new yr. January PMI figures had been already not convincing however we’re but to see the impression that has had on arduous information.

The web massive clue will come subsequent week on Thursday, the place we’ll have February flash PMI readings. The releases there will probably be of serious significance as they can even assist set the tone forward of the ECB assembly on 7 March.

However for now, I’d nonetheless anticipate EUR/USD to stay pressured to the draw back and any retracement again in direction of the 200-hour MA (blue line) can be a horny proposition to reengage with additional shorts, all else being equal.

As for at present, I reckon we’re more likely to see value nonetheless settle between the present vary of 1.1250 to 1.1300 on condition that there is not a lot on the financial calendar to essentially shake issues up. But when something, I might say dangers are nonetheless skewed in direction of a draw back break a couple of again in direction of 1.1350.

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