Technical Analysis

AUD/USD draw back transfer stalls on the 100-hour shifting common, what’s subsequent?

Upside and draw back bias may be clearly outlined now

AUD/USD H1 04-02

The draw back transfer right this moment runs right into a roadblock on the 100-hour MA (crimson line) as patrons lean on the extent to defend the near-term bullish bias. There’s additionally a near-term trendline assist to supply an extra space for patrons to latch onto in the intervening time after failing to crack above the 200-day MA final week:

AUD/USD D1 04-02

So, what’s subsequent for the pair?

At the moment, the upside and draw back bias may be clearly outlined with the previous needing to interrupt above the 200-day MA @ zero.7290 to increase increased. In the meantime, the latter must fall beneath the 100-hour MA (however I would argue for a break beneath zero.7200) with a view to acquire momentum to ascertain a extra bearish bias within the near-term – by aiming for a break beneath the 200-hour MA (now @ zero.7185).

In between, worth could be very a lot nonetheless taking part in ping pong as merchants look to choose a story and search for a big break.

As for occasions to look out for this week, we’ll have the RBA to come back tomorrow however as soon as once more it’s anticipated to be a non-event kind of. The aussie facet of the equation feels very outlined for now as we now have all of the items of the puzzle to make up what the image seems to be like.

That leaves us with the greenback facet of the equation, wherein we’ll slowly get increasingly knowledge releases that had been delayed by the shutdown. That stated, the info factors lag all the way in which again to November final 12 months so I am not even certain if they’d actually matter all an excessive amount of at this level.

Nonetheless, be cautious of these releases as they’ll feed into the Fed’s evaluation of the financial scenario and whether or not or not we may even see any price hikes to come back this 12 months.

The key outdoors issue in my opinion can be any developments in commerce talks. However with China off for the week, I anticipate feedback on the matter to be few and much between. Nonetheless, we could hear a factor or two from US officers in order that can be a key driver of danger sentiment which can affect the pair and the greenback.

In any other case, simply look out for the 2 key technical ranges above i.e. 200-day MA and 100-hour MA/zero.7200 deal with as a break of these ranges can be what makes the following directional transfer within the pair.

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