January 2018 seasonals evaluate
An uncommon January adopted an uncommon December. Danger belongings have been pounded in December in what’s historically a powerful month whereas they rebounded in January in what’s often a poor month. It is a good instance of utilizing seasonal patterns as just one a part of the puzzle.
The Canadian greenback was the highest performer within the month, up three.eight% in opposition to the US greenback. Firstly of the month I famous that the previous two Januarys had additionally bucked a pattern of seasonal CAD weak point to begin the yr. It is now secure to say that pattern is useless.One pattern that remained very a lot in trend was shopping for gold to begin the yr. I’ve written about it yr and yr and it continues to be my key to beginning the yr with beneficial properties. Gold climbed three.2% in January and is up greater than eight% because the begin of December.
Trying forward, February is one other sturdy month for gold however be warned that the primary half of China’s lunar new yr vacation week tends to be comfortable so ready for a dip to purchase could also be prudent.
I will be writing extra about February seasonals tomorrow however one to observe is oil. Crude is mostly weak in January however it was extraordinarily sturdy this month. I do not assume the rally in oil is over as a result of there’s a lengthy interval of seasonal power forward.