Andrew Grantham and Royce Mendes, analysts at CIBC, level out slowdown within the US development is more likely to weaken the US greenback, significantly in the course of the second half of the yr.
“The record-breaking partial authorities shutdown will negatively affect development within the first quarter of this yr, however (…) it additionally has longer-term implications. Fiscal stimulus has performed a giant
function within the acceleration in US GDP development beneath President Trump, with the largest swing in comparison with Obama’s tenure coming not from tax-cut-induced shopper and enterprise spending however direct authorities spending.”
“Present difficulties in attaining a consensus on spending amongst Congress means that this could’t be relied upon. A slowdown within the US economic system, in comparison with a stabilization of development elsewhere, is more likely to weigh on the US$ significantly within the second half of this yr.”