EUR/GBP is testing essential help from the April 2018 low
The pair has been on a tear in direction of the draw back over the previous week or so falling from close to zero.8800 ranges to now testing the April 2018 low @ zero.8620. The low immediately hit zero.8618 earlier, which is the bottom degree posted since Might 2017.
There are a few diverging themes happening right here and this might probably unlock an actual slippery slope in EUR/GBP within the near-to-medium time period.
The ECB yesterday moved to acknowledge draw back dangers to the Eurozone economic system in a possible first step to again away from its present fee steerage of climbing charges in Q3/This fall this yr. Whereas that view will nonetheless be depending on Q1 financial knowledge, the early indicators are suggesting that the central financial institution ought to take a step again in March by revising that steerage.
In the meantime, the pound is trying extra perky by the day as odds of a no-deal Brexit are seen diminishing whereas possibilities of some type of deal or a second referendum are slowly gaining traction. That’s serving to to propel the quid larger and with cable additionally on the lookout for a bullish breakout, we could very properly see EUR/GBP run away to the draw back in comparable style.
A break under the April 2018 will open up a slippery slope to the draw back for the pair with sellers to goal for the zero.8500 deal with subsequent. At this level, the elemental argument is continuous to favour a fall – regardless of the pair already falling by greater than three% up to now 10 days – and a key technical break will solely give extra confidence to sellers to drive worth decrease within the coming classes.