TALKING POINTS – US DOLLAR, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, YEN, TRADE WAR, NOK
US Greenback could rise on soggy UofM client confidence information
Yen decrease as commerce conflict de-escalation hopes elevate APAC bourses
Norwegian Krone positive aspects as Prime Minister shores up coalition
The College of Michigan measure of US client confidence stands out on an in any other case uninteresting financial calendar by means of the top of the buying and selling week. The US authorities shutdown has dramatically slowed incoming news-flow, leaving buyers pining for well timed indicators providing a view of near-term financial circumstances. Which may make this launch extra market-moving than normal.
The headline sentiment index is seen ticking decrease to 96.eight. Whereas that might be a five-month low, it could not quantity to a dramatic departure from the prevailing upward development. A disappointing final result reflecting a raft of worries – like fiscal headwinds from the shutdown in addition to disruption and uncertainty linked to the US-China commerce conflict – could translate into broad-based threat aversion.
Maybe counter-intuitively, the US Greenback may fare comparatively effectively towards such a backdrop. The benchmark forex has confirmed to be remarkably resilient regardless of the collapse of priced-in Fed charge hike expectations over the previous two months. In reality, it rose to a 20-month excessive amid a vicious late-year market rout earlier than pulling again as threat urge for food steadied. That speaks to robust haven attraction ready to entice anew.
YEN DOWN AS APAC STOCKS RISE, NOK UP AS PM SHORES UP COALITION
The Japanese Yen narrowly underperformed in in any other case quiet Asia Pacific commerce. The perennially anti-risk unit tracked decrease as native inventory markets adopted Wall Road greater. The newswires chalked optimism to rumors that US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is pushing to reduce tariffs on China, regardless of a forceful official denial of any such effort.
In the meantime, the Norwegian Krone traded broadly greater after Prime Minister Erna Solberg reached a take care of the Christian Democratic Get together to broaden her ruling coalition. The transfer secures a legislative majority aimed toward pushing by means of a raft of market-friendly insurance policies, together with tax cuts.
See our market forecasts to be taught what’s going to drive currencies, commodities and shares in Q1!
ASIA PACIFIC TRADING SESSION
EUROPEAN TRADING SESSION
** All instances listed in GMT. See the full financial calendar right here.
FX TRADING RESOURCES
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Foreign money Strategist for DailyFX.com
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