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FTSE 100 vs FTSE 250: How Brexit Vote Will Influence

FTSE 100 Evaluation and Information

PM Could Set to Lose Significant Vote

Brexit Vote Final result to Decide FTSE Outperformer

See our Q1 forecasts to study what’s going to drive value motion via the quarter

Significant Vote Defeat to Drag on FTSE 250

The main focus immediately can be on the significant vote, by which PM Could can be hoping to get her withdrawal settlement handed parliament. Nevertheless, given the sizeable variety of MPs in opposition to her deal, it’s extremely possible that Theresa Could will fail to get her deal authorised. As such, whereas the preliminary response may see the domestically uncovered FTSE 250 underperform relative to the FTSE 100, a lot of this can rely on what occurs subsequent. As a reminder, a weaker GBP tends to learn a lot of the worldwide corporations that make up the FTSE 100. The reason is is that 2/three of the income generated amongst FTSE 100 corporations are from abroad. Consequently, repatriated income are price extra in Sterling phrases when the Pound drops.

Within the quick aftermath of the Brexit referendum, the toughest hit sectors had been financials, housebuilders, retail, journey and leisure corporations, falling on common by 21%.

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Supply: Refinitiv. Unfold between the FTSE 250 and FTSE 100 over a 5-yr timeframe.

Brexit Vote Final result to Decide FTSE Outperformer

Vote Final result

Chance

GBP Influence

FTSE Outperformer

Could Wins

Least Seemingly

Most Bullish

FTSE 250

Slender Loss (1-50 votes)

Seemingly

Barely Bullish

FTSE 250 Marginally

Extensive Loss (100+)

Most Seemingly

Bearish

FTSE 100

Brexit Schedule

0900: PM Could meets with senior ministers

1030-1130: Amendments to be voted on can be made public

1245: Brexit debate to start

1900: Brexit debate to finish

2000-2100: Significant vote to happen

All instances GMT

Outcomes to comply with

RECOMMENDED READING

KEY TRADING RESOURCES:

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, e mail him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Comply with Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX


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