Under the day MA
The greenback has moved greater at present after a wander decrease over the past month or so.
Trying on the greenback index day by day chart above, the excessive in December stalled close to the November excessive. That helped to show the bias decrease (see inexperienced circle three).
The early January low did get beneath the 100 day MA however stalled on the November low and corrected greater. That rise stalled, and previous to at present, the final 6 days has seen a transfer decrease. That transfer took the worth beneath the 100 day MA (at 96.00 at present – blue line) and the November/early Jan low at 95.678 (bearish).
What couldn’t be breached on the draw back, nonetheless, was the 200 day MA (inexperienced line at 94.884). The low yesterday might solely attain 95.029. If the greenback is to weaken in 2019, That will be one of many minimal targets to get via (the 100 day MA is the primary goal), and keep beneath for the technical image to weaken. The worth has not traded beneath the 200 day MA since again on the finish of April/starting of Might 2018.
So what’s subsequent?
The worth at present trades between the 100 day MA above at 96.00 and the 200 day beneath at 94.884. In between is the November/early Jan. low at 95.678. The worth is at present buying and selling round that stage. When the worth trades between these two key day by day shifting averages, I name it buying and selling between the Objective Posts. “The market” is just a little bearish (beneath the 100 day MA). It’s a little bullish (holding above the 200 day MA). Merchants are not sure.
Sooner or later, a bias resolution shall be made. If it’s a sturdy pattern transfer, we’ll see a break and important run. The 2018 transfer greater took the worth from 88.25 to 97.71 (or close to 10 factors greater)
Whether it is reasonably bearish, a break decrease will goal the 38.2% after which the September lows at 94.098 and 93.814 respectively. An additional transfer will goal 92.982 on the 50% retracement..
A transfer greater, seems to be towards the January excessive at 96.958 and the ceiling excessive from November and December at 97.711. A transfer above that and merchants shall be occupied with 100.00.
Proper now, the “market” is feeling out what the following transfer may certainly be within the close to time period (and maybe for the pattern of 2019 too).