USD/JPY worth motion stays “trapped” up to now immediately
It is a bit of a tough scenario for USD/JPY to start out the week. On the one hand, equities sentiment is holding up a tad higher. Then again, the greenback is softer as markets proceed to weigh Fed chair Powell’s dovish remarks from final Friday.
By way of worth motion, it is just about ping pong between the 100-hour MA (crimson line) and help across the 108.00 deal with in the interim. Sellers proceed to defend the near-term bearish bias on the day nevertheless it seems to be a case of simply ready for the best catalyst for one thing to occur.
By way of danger occasions within the day forward, look out for the efficiency of the US money fairness market but additionally the US December ISM non-manufacturing index launch. The present rhetoric in markets proper now’s that we may see doable future underperformance within the US financial system, which is what Powell warned about final week. Therefore, the latter launch will very a lot be a “make or break” issue for the greenback on the day.
A break again under 108.00 is important because it opens up an extension again in direction of the help ranges within the 107.00-50 area. In the meantime, a break above the 100-hour MA will current an identical extension alternative in direction of testing the 109.00 deal with and the 200-hour MA (blue line) @ 109.53.
The opposite factor to contemplate for USD/JPY can also be the indecision of Treasury yields. The Fed signalling a pause in fee hikes ought to be a cause for Treasury yields to fall. Nevertheless, within the greater image, the Fed’s choice may assist to alleviate downwards stress on the financial system and assist stoke inflationary pressures which can assist equities and likewise Treasury yields.
That is going to make buying and selling yen pairs much less easy within the near-term till markets determine which narrative will dominate. On Friday, US 10-year yields moved up by ~11 bps to 2.67%. At the moment, it’s down by 2 bps to 2.65%. If something, it exhibits that the buying and selling theme in markets this 12 months shall be much more sophisticated than it was in 2018.