Analysts at TD Securities are factors out that Turkey’s December headline CPI inflation is anticipated by the consensus to fall to 20.5% Y/Y from a previous 21.6%.
“In December USDTRY was comparatively steady following on from three months of sharp falls, and world oil costs continued to tumble. Together with clear indicators that home demand is slowing, this could all bode nicely for the near-term inflation outlook. That mentioned, our regression mannequin forecasts headline inflation of 21.5% Y/Y, solely a bit under November’s quantity. Nevertheless, there are indicators that lately the speed of FX pass-though has sped up from what has traditionally been the norm, so we predict the dangers are most likely skewed in direction of the quantity being under 21.5%. The consensus expects core inflation to be 19.eight% Y/Y in December, down from the prior 20.7%.”