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France: GDP to develop 1.6% in 2018 earlier than slowing right down to 1.four% in 2019 – ING

“Enterprise confidence was steady in November, and elevated within the retail sector, whilst service hiring intentions fell to a three-year low,” notice ING analysts. “However this was earlier than grassroots protests over excessive gas prices paralysed buying centres, resulting in a brief drop in gross sales. If the protests proceed, enterprise confidence might take a success in December.”

Key quotes

“In manufacturing, confidence confirmed a slight rebound from 104 to 104.eight in November, in step with ranges final seen within the early levels of the quick restoration two years in the past. Inventories have been steady whereas each current and anticipated manufacturing have been on the rise.”

“We notice nevertheless that overseas orders, which remained elevated till final month, are additionally declining whereas home order books have suffered from weak home demand. This might hamper an acceleration of the present enterprise investments restoration.”

“All in all, the November confidence surveys affirm that the 4Q GDP rebound could possibly be extra restricted than anticipated. Non-public consumption progress ought to decelerate from the already weak 1.2% reached in 2017 and we now have revised our GDP progress forecast for 2018 to 1.6% earlier than slowing down additional subsequent 12 months to 1.four%.”

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