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Brexit: Remainder of the 12 months might be characterised by excessive uncertainty and excessive tensions – Rabobank

“The EU and the UK reached an settlement on a draft deal on 13 November,” word Rabobank analysts.

Key quotes

“The Irish conundrum has been solved by retaining the UK in a Customs Union with the EU and Northern Eire aligned with elements of the EU Single Market laws for items. The UK may additionally keep longer within the transition interval, one thing a Joint Committee through which each the EU and UK are represented will determine.”

“The timing is constructive information because it leaves extra time than anticipated for getting the deal by the UK Parliament. Nonetheless, given the diffuse and typically fluid positions on Brexit within the UK Parliament getting the deal authorised might be very difficult.”

“PM Could may first have to beat a potential management problem. The remainder of the 12 months might be characterised by excessive uncertainty and excessive tensions. We take into account that the deal might be ratified by 29 March 2019, however we additionally see the possibilities of a ‘laborious Brexit’ nearly as excessive as these of getting an orderly Brexit.”


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